Barring a stunning turn of events, Jameis Winston is set to be the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft. (Photo: Phil Sears — USA Today Sports)
BBD Editor: Dan Hope
The wait is finally over. After months of speculation about how the 2015 NFL draft will play out, the pieces will begin falling into place Thursday at 8 p.m. ET, when the first round begins.
If the pre-draft rumor mill is any indication, we are in for another draft full of surprises and unpredictability (per usual). While Jameis Winston is widely presumed to be the player the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will draft at No. 1 overall on Thursday night, the Tennessee Titans’ intentions for the No. 2 overall pick—perhaps selecting Marcus Mariota, perhaps selecting a non-quarterback or possibly trading down—remain unclear.
Ultimately, we will find out what happens at No. 2, and what other moves shake up the first round, in less than 24 hours from the time of this post’s publication. Nonetheless, I have taken my final shot at projecting how the top picks in the draft will play out.
These projections are a reflection of what I think will happen in the draft, and not necessarily a reflection of what players I would select at each respective pick. To see which players I would take first in this year’s draft, check out my Top 100 Prospects board.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Although there have been rumors that the Buccaneers could have concerns about Winston’s off-field history or that they could look to trade down, this pick still feels like a lock at this point. The Buccaneers have shown heavy interest in Winston throughout the pre-draft process, and absolutely need to draft a potential franchise quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick. Winston has his flaws, both on and off the field, but he has the pocket-passing presence and physical tools to potentially develop into an elite NFL quarterback.
2. Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
I have a confession to make: I really don’t have a good hunch as to what will happen at the No. 2 pick on Thursday night. The Titans, by consistently giving praise to both Mariota and incumbent quarterback Zach Mettenberger, have done a great job concealing their intention in the days and weeks leading up to the draft. I still believe that the Titans’ preference is to trade down, and that they will be exploring all trade options through the time they are on the clock Thursday night. But in the interest of projecting the draft as accurately as possible, with no clear-cut trade in the works, slotting Mariota as the No. 2 pick—without a trade—gives me the highest probability of not entirely screwing up the rest of my mock draft.
Ultimately, I do believe Mariota will be the pick here whether the Titans trade or not. So as not to cop out entirely on a potential trade, I will say that if the Titans make a deal, my inclination is that it will be with the Cleveland Browns. The Titans have what the Browns want—a chance to draft a new quarterback—and the Browns have what the Titans want—two first-round picks. With that being said, the Browns are likely to have to give up more in addition to the Nos. 12 and 19 overall picks to move up, and they might not be willing to do that. So if no trade comes together, I think the Titans will end up using their pick on Mariota, knowing that passing him up could be a move they would long regret.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
The Jaguars could pull a shocker with the No. 3 overall pick, just as they did last year by drafting Blake Bortles, but the unsurprising move would be for them to target one of the draft’s premier pass-rusher. The best of the group is Fowler, an explosive athlete with the size and strength to be a three-down edge defender for a Jacksonville defense that lacks star talent.
4. Oakland Raiders: Leonard Williams, DT/DE, USC
Assuming the Raiders stay put at No. 4, the decision between Williams and Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper can be considered a win-win situation. While Williams would give them a versatile interior penetrator who can play both defensive tackle and defensive end, Cooper would give them the go-to target they lack in their passing offense. Ultimately, Williams might be the better choice because of the multiple roles he can take on defensively, and because of the depth at wide receiver that should still be available for the Raiders in Round 2.
5. Washington Redskins: Vic Beasley, OLB/DE, Clemson
There has been some buzz leading up to the draft regarding Beasley potentially sliding on draft night, but I don’t buy it. A terrific athlete who was highly productive in each of his final two seasons at Clemson, Beasley fits new Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan’s mantra of “best player available” in this scenario. He can immediately help the team replace Brian Orakpo and provide an impactful spark to the team’s pass-rush.
6. New York Jets: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
Wide receiver is not exactly a need for the Jets, given that they acquired Brandon Marshall in a trade this offseason, but they could be hard-pressed to pass upon Cooper. The most complete wide receiver in this year’s draft, Cooper truly is the best player available in this scenario, and could fit as either an outside or slot receiver in a terrific trio of wideouts alongside Marshall and Eric Decker. It’s also possible a team could trade up to this slot for Cooper—according to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News, the Jets are “open to trading down”—but Cooper shouldn’t fall past the sixth draft slot.
7. Chicago Bears: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
After dealing away Brandon Marshall in the aforementioned trade, the Bears should be in the market for a big wide receiver to replace him. That leads them to Kevin White, who has the best size/speed combination of any wideout in the entire draft, and is a strong receiver with great ball skills who can give the team another game-changer opposite Alshon Jeffery at the position.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Alvin “Bud” Dupree, OLB/DE, Kentucky
Though there have been rumblings that the Falcons could take Georgia running back Todd Gurley with this pick, they really should set their sights on drafting the best available pass-rusher at No. 8 overall. In this scenario, that’s Dupree. An explosive athlete with the physical tools and experience to play both defensive end and linebacker, Dupree is a great fit to play on the edge in new head coach Dan Quinn’s hybrid defensive scheme.
9. New York Giants: Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa
One of the most widely projected matches in the entire draft, Scherff is the draft’s top offensive lineman and can be considered the best player available here for the Giants. An All-American left tackle at Iowa, Scherff projects as a potential NFL star at guard, where the Giants should be in the market for another starter.
10. St. Louis Rams: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
The Rams have a need at right tackle, and Peat appears poised to be one of the first offensive linemen off the board. An agile tackle with a prototypical frame for the position, Peat would give the Rams offensive line a pair of young bookends with high upside, in tandem with Greg Robinson.
11. Minnesota Vikings: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
The Vikings have expressed clear interest in the top cornerbacks leading up to the draft. Waynes, the fastest cornerback at this year’s combine, is expected to be the first player off the board at his position, and has regularly linked to Minnesota as a target of its interest. Washington cornerback Marcus Peters and Connecticut cornerback Byron Jones could also be in play for the Vikings, but Waynes is the favorite to be the pick.
12. Cleveland Browns: Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
While the Browns could be seeking a trade up, the smartest move for them might be to stay put and draft the two best players they can get at the No. 12 and 19 picks. A likely target for them at No. 12 would be Shelton, a massive, powerful nose tackle who could immediately upgrade a Browns defense that allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL last season.
13. New Orleans Saints: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
Although the Saints are expected to go defense-heavy with their five picks in the first three rounds, they could also be in the market for a wide receiver—having traded Kenny Stills for a third-round pick earlier this offseason—and Parker might be too good to pass up if he is still on the board at No. 13 overall. The big, athletic wideout could immediately become a top weapon on their offense—which needs another one after also trading tight end Jimmy Graham—and enable the Saints to focus on drafting the best defensive players they can get with later picks.
14. Miami Dolphins: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Running backs as first-round picks—let alone top-15 picks—have become rare occurrences, but Gurley is a rare talent. Possessing a rare combination of size, speed, power and agility, Gurley could be an immediate star, once fully recovered from his torn ACL, on an otherwise underwhelming offense.
15. San Francisco 49ers: Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
Armstead is a boom-or-bust type player who would be a reach as a top-15 pick, but it’s understandable why the 49ers would love him, as many connected NFL writers—including Sports Illustrated’s Peter King and Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller—have reported they do. The Oregon product has a highly intriguing combination of size, power and athleticism for a 3-4 defensive end, and would be a good fit for the defense led by new 49ers head coach and former defensive line coach Jim Tomsula.
16. Houston Texans: Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA
There are many teams with needs for inside linebackers in this year’s draft, and few top prospects at the position, so the Texans would be smart to draft Kendricks while they have a chance. Injuries to Brian Cushing have left the Texans weak at the position, and Kendricks is a rangy linebacker who can be an every-down asset to the team in both run defense and pass coverage.
17. San Diego Chargers: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
Although it has been rumored that the Chargers could trade Philip Rivers to Tennessee and draft Marcus Mariota, the move San Diego really should make for its backfield is to select one of the draft’s top running backs. Gordon, who ran for 2,587 yards last season and was a Heisman Trophy finalist, has the talent to be one of the NFL’s best at the position, and the Chargers have reportedly showed “a ton of interest” in him at his pro day, according to CBS Sports’ Dane Brugler.
18. Kansas City Chiefs: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
The Chiefs have reason to add another cornerback early in this year’s draft, and Peters’ physical style of play makes him precisely the type of player they should be looking for at the position. To make this pick, Kansas City will have to be comfortable with Peters’ character, as he was dismissed from the Washington football team last season after multiple altercations with coaches. In terms of on-field talent, however, Peters is arguably the best player available in this scenario.
19. Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo Bills): Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
Should the Browns be unable to package their picks to move up for Mariota, it’s likely they will still use one of their selections on a quarterback. Hundley is not widely considered to be a first-round talent, but he has the tools to develop into a starting-caliber passer in the NFL, and if the Browns do not believe 2014 first-round pick Johnny Manziel is their answer, Hundley could be tough to pass up. It’s possible the Browns could wait until Round 2 or even Round 3 to select Hundley, but they would have to take him in Round 1 to ensure an opportunity to draft him.
20. Philadelphia Eagles: Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut
The Eagles have shown significant interest in Jones, a remarkably athletic cornerback with the size, speed and physicality to be the missing piece of Philadelphia’s secondary. Eagles coach/personnel director Chip Kelly attended the Connecticut pro day, along with three other members of the Eagles brass, to watch Jones, whose draft stock has soared since his outstanding performance at the NFL Scouting Combine. He is a good fit to line up opposite Byron Maxwell as an outside starter in Philadelphia’s defense.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
The Bengals should be in the market for an upgrade over Domata Peko, and they could get that by drafting Brown, who is well suited to play the 4-3 nose tackle position Peko has occupied for eight years in Cincinnati. A big, quick and powerful interior defensive lineman, Brown could be considered the best prospect still available in this scenario.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
Perhaps the safest pick among cornerbacks in this year’s draft, Johnson is widely projected to be a first-round pick as a result. A technically polished cornerback with solid size and athleticism, Johnson would be a good choice for the Steelers, who have a massive need to add young talent to their secondary.
23. Detroit Lions: Xavier Cooper, DT, Washington State
The Lions might be able to trade down and still land Cooper, but he shouldn’t be ruled out as a surprise first-round pick. The most athletic defensive tackle prospect in this year’s draft, Cooper is an explosive and agile interior lineman who is a perfect fit to replace Nick Fairley as a penetrator in the middle of Detroit’s defense. Among the players available to the Lions in this scenario, there is no better fit than Cooper.
24. Arizona Cardinals: Eli Harold, OLB/DE, Virginia
Although Nebraska’s Randy Gregory and Missouri’s Shane Ray are widely projected to be selected ahead of Harold, recent red flags around those two pass-rushers could lead the Cardinals to draft Harold ahead of them. While the Virginia product has not received as much hype as Gregory and Ray, he offers just as much athletic upside and can bring the speed and ability to generate pressure off the edge that Arizona needs at the outside linebacker position.
25. Carolina Panthers: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
NFL Media’s Lance Zierlein has suggested that Ogbuehi is a lock to be a first-round pick, and while we will ultimately find out if that is true on Thursday, the Panthers stand out as the team who could be the one ready to take him in Round 1. There are other options available who I would argue are better picks—including Oregon’s Jake Fisher, Miami’s Ereck Flowers and Florida’s D.J. Humphries—but Ogbuehi’s length and movement skills could make him intriguing to Carolina, even in spite of the torn ACL he suffered in December. The Panthers have a massive need at the offensive tackle position, and reportedly “love Ogbuehi and want him,” according to Ollie Connolly of UKEndZone.com.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Randy Gregory, OLB/DE, Nebraska
The Ravens appear to be in the market for another pass-rushing outside linebacker, and the upside of Gregory could be too good for them to pass up at the No. 26 overall pick. He is surrounded by red flags, including low weight and a failed drug test at the NFL Scouting Combine, that make him a risky pick. His length and explosiveness, however, give him the potential to be a highly impactful playmaker off the edge if he can bulk up and stay out of trouble off the field.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana
Three running backs in Round 1 would be viewed as a shocking development, given that there were no first-round running backs in 2013 or 2014, but if Gurley and Gordon both end up being top-20 picks, that could push Coleman up into the late first round. A well-rounded back with breakaway speed who ran for 2,036 yards last season despite playing seven games on a broken foot, Coleman is a natural fit to replace DeMarco Murray and immediately emerge as a productive runner behind Dallas’ elite offensive line.
28. Denver Broncos: Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon
After poor play by Chris Clark and Paul Cornick forced Denver to move guard Louis Vasquez to right tackle last season, the Broncos need to find a true fixture at the position. Fisher is the most athletic offensive tackle in this year’s draft, and a perfect fit for new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme.
29. Indianapolis Colts: La’el Collins, OT/G, LSU
Although it appears that Collins himself is guilty of no wrongdoing, and might truly be a victim of horribly unfortunate timing, he could be primed to fall in the draft after news broke Tuesday that he is being questioned by police following the shooting death of a pregnant in Baton Rouge last week. As reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Collins is not believed to be a suspect in the shooting, but nonetheless, the lack of time between now and the draft limits the time teams have to gather information on the situation, and might give them a reason to pass upon Collins.
All of that said, if the Colts feel comfortable with the information they receive and Collins’ character as a whole, they should not pass up the LSU offensive lineman if he falls to the No. 29 overall pick. Easily the best player available in this scenario from a talent standpoint, Collins has experience playing both outside and inside, and could potentially start immediately at right tackle or right guard, positions that are question marks for the Colts.
30. Green Bay Packers: Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah
Having lost both Tramon Williams and Davon House to free agency this offseason, the Packers are in need of another player who can step in and contribute at the cornerback position. Rowe, a tall, athletic cornerback who also has experience playing safety, has generated heavy buzz since the combine and is reportedly a favorite of the Packers, according to DraftInsider.net’s Tony Pauline. A run-stopping inside linebacker in either Miami’s Denzel Perryman or Clemson’s Stephone Anthony would also make sense at this pick, but the Packers’ chance of landing one of them late in Round 2 is better than getting a ready-to-play cornerback later.
31. New Orleans Saints: Owamagbe Odighizuwa, OLB/DE, UCLA
The Saints should certainly look to use at least one of their first two first-round picks on a defensive playmaker, and their top priority should be adding another pass-rusher on the edge. Odighizuwa is an athletic and versatile player who could potentially see playing time as a 4-3 defensive end, 4-3 defensive tackle, 3-4 outside linebacker and 3-4 defensive end in various packages within New Orleans’ hybrid defense. Missouri’s Shane Ray could also be an enticing option here, as he is a better pure pass-rusher than Odighizuwa, but Odighizuwa offers more versatility and comes with less red flags.
32. New England Patriots: Eddie Goldman, NT, Florida State
After letting longtime defensive line anchor Vince Wilfork walk as a free agent this offseason, the New England Patriots need to replace him at the nose tackle position. Goldman has the combination of size, power and quickness to fill Wilfork’s role as the primary run-stopping presence and gap-plugger on the New England defensive front.
See page 2 for Round 2 projections.
